Despite some increase in precipitation, several regions experience strengthening dryness in southern Africa.
Heavy rains sustain the risk of flooding throughout parts of Kenya and northern Tanzania.
1) Above-average seasonal rainfall has led to above normal river levels along the Shabelle and Jubba River basins. Although a reduction of precipitation has been observed during the middle of November, additional rains are expected to sustain the risk for flooding in the region.
2) Very low and infrequent precipitation across many states in South Africa and neighboring countries has resulted in significant early season moisture deficits, particularly in the KwaZulu-Natal region, and in parts of Swaziland, and southern Mozambique. The continuation of low rainfall in late November and early December is expected rapidly worsen ground conditions and impede cropping activities due higher than normal temperatures, and due to poor rains from last year’s monsoon, which has already depleted water resources.
3) Poorly distributed rainfall since September and delayed rains in the south has resulted in a strengthening of early season moisture deficits and degraded ground conditions throughout Angola and northern Namibia.
4) Despite an increase in rains during late-November, below-average precipitation over the past several weeks has led to developing dryness and strong moisture deficits in northern Zimbabwe.
5) Significantly heavy rains since early November have triggered numerous floods, river inundation, thousands of displaced people and fatalities throughout several provinces in Kenya. Forecasts suggest a continuation of above-average rains in late November.
6) Despite the recent increase in rainfall across Kenya, Poorly distributed rainfall since the beginning of October has resulted in pockets of strong seasonal moisture deficits throughout parts of northcentral Kenya.