Enhanced rains and tropical cyclone activity sustains the risk of flooding during early November in East Africa.
Delayed seasonal rains continue to strengthen early season dryness throughout several parts of southern Africa
1) Persistent below-average rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Ghana, Togo, and Benin led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. However, increased rainfall since October has resulted in much improved ground conditions in the region.
2) Several consecutive weeks of above-average rains has led to swelling rivers in Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
The Shabelle and Jubba Rivers remain forecast to be near or above flood stage. In addition, locally heavy rainfall due to ambient tropical cyclone passages in the Gulf of Aden is expected heighten the risk for flooding in central and northern Somalia.
3) Very low and poorly distributed precipitation has led to a prolonged delay of seasonal moisture available for cropping early season activities. Combined with higher than normal temperatures, the developing dryness is worsened by pre-existing ground conditions associated with a poor monsoon last year which has depleted water resources, and may lead to an intensification of negative impacts.
4) Poorly distributed rainfall since September has resulted in a strengthening of early season moisture deficits and degraded ground conditions throughout several provinces of northern and central Angola.
5) Several consecutive weeks of above-average rainfall has increased the risk for flooding and river inundation in the White Nile, Jonglei, and Eastern Equatorial provinces of South Sudan.
6) Poorly distributed rainfall since the beginning of October has resulted in pockets of strong seasonal moisture deficits throughout parts of central Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.
7) Abundant rain has caused flooding, cut off roads, overflowing of rivers, and affected people in many parts of Kenya, including the vicinity of Lous, Meru, Nairobi,
Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, and Garissa during the past week. Elevated risks for flooding are maintained as locally heavy rain is expected to continue during the next week.