Above-average rains forecast for Greater Horn expected to sustain the risk of flooding during early November.
Suppressed rains expected to continue for several parts of southern Africa.
1) Persistent below-average rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Increased rainfall since October has resulted in much improved ground conditions in the region.
2) Heavy rainfall over the past several weeks has led to swelling rivers in Somalia and southern Ethiopia. The Shabelle and Jubba Rivers are forecast to be near or above flood stage. Flood risk is high for the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle and moderate for the lower portions of the Jubba River. Increased rainfall during early November is expected heighten the risk for flooding.
3) Very low and poorly distributed precipitation has led to a prolonged delay of seasonal moisture available for cropping early season activities. Combined with higher than normal temperatures, the developing dryness is also exacerbated by pre-existing ground conditions associated with a poor monsoon last year which has depleted water resources, and may lead to an intensification of negative impacts. Suppressed rainfall is forecast across the region during early November.